— Ron Smith, Farm Press Editorial Staff
Market opportunities for the 2009 corn crop and the 2009-2010 wheat harvest depend on factors as close to home as how much it rains in Iowa, as far off as how long it stays dry in Australia and as varied as how high or how low crude oil futures will move.
Blake Bennett, Texas AgriLife Extension economist, says overestimates of the 2009 wheat crop have moved prices up in recent weeks. Trouble with the Southwest winter wheat crop and problems with spring wheat planting support a price increase.
Texas and Oklahoma wheat production will be down as much as 50 percent from 2008. Kansas farmers are not as hard hit, but are still not expecting a bin buster, Bennett said during the North Texas Small Grains Field Day in Leonard, Texas.
“The Kansas crop is not good enough to overcome the losses in Texas and Oklahoma,” he said. Estimates put Oklahoma production at about 20 bushels per acre and about a 77 million-bushel crop. Texas wheat will make about 62 million bushels.
Crop conditions in mid-May showed Texas and Oklahoma wheat trending toward the low end of the scale, with much of the crop rated poor or very poor. Kansas was showing 53 percent of the crop in the good to excellent range.
For the 18 primary wheat producing states, 37 percent of the crop is rated good and 27 percent is fair.
“The Texas very poor rating increased since November,” Bennett said.
“The market is also concerned about spring wheat,” he said. “Planting is running behind schedule significantly — at least one week later than usual. The market is responding.”
He said the USDA supply and demand report also showed a smaller carryout than in the April report. “It’s down 9 million bushels. The 2008-2009 carryout is anticipated at 669 million bushels; the 2009-2010 carryout estimate is 637 million bushels. The trade estimated 683 million.”
Bennett said a price range of $4.70 to $5.70 is likely for next year. “The trade overestimated carryout for the next two years.”
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